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2024 Vol.34, Issue 1 Preview Page

Research Article

Evaluation of the Importance of Variables When Using a Random Forest Technique to Assess Landslide Damage: Focusing on Chungju Landslides

Random Forest를 활용한 산사태 피해 영향인자 평가: 충주시 산사태를 중심으로

Jaeho Lee1
,
Youjin Jeong1
,
Junghae Choi2*
이 재호1
,
정 유진1
,
최 정해2*
1Master’s Student, Department of Geology, Kyungpook National University
2Professor, Department of Earth Science Education, Kyungpook National University
1경북대학교 지질학과 석사과정
2경북대학교 지구과학교육과 교수
*Corresponding Author
31 March 2024. pp. 51-65
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Abstract

Landslides are natural disasters that causes significant property damage worldwide every year. In Korea, damage due to landslides is increasing owing to the effects of climate change, and it is important to identify the factors that increase the prevalence of landslides in order to reduce the damage they cause. Therefore, this study used a random forest model to analyze the importance of 14 factors in influencing landslide damage in a specific area of Chungju, Chungcheongbuk-do province, Korea. The random forest model performed accurately with an AUC of 0.87 and the most-important factors were ranked in the order of aspect, slope, distance to valley, and elevation, suggesting that topographic factors such as aspect and slope more greatly influence landslide damage than geological or soil factors such as rock type and soil thickness. The results of this study are expected to provide a basis for mapping and predicting landslide damage, and for research focused on reducing landslide damage.

Keywords
landslide damage area
variable importance
random forest
frequency ratio

산사태는 전 세계적으로 매년 큰 재산 피해를 야기하는 자연 재해로 알려져 있다. 국내에서도 기후 변화의 영향으로 산사태 피해가 증가하는 경향을 보이고 있으며, 이로 인한 피해를 줄이기 위해서는 산사태를 증가시키는 인자들을 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 따라서 본 연구는 충청북도 충주시에서 발생한 산사태 피해에 영향을 미치는 변수들의 중요도를 평가하기 위해 랜덤포레스트 모델을 활용하여 14개의 인자들 사이의 중요도를 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 모델의 성능은 AUC가 0.87로 높은 정확도를 보이며, 변수중요도는 경사 방향, 경사, 계곡까지의 직선 거리, 고도 순으로 정해졌으며, 이는 경사방향과 경사 등의 지형인자가 암종과 유효토심과 같은 지질과 토양인자보다 산사태 피해에 더 큰 영향을 미친다는 것을 시사한다. 이 연구 결과는 산사태 피해 예측지도의 제작 및 산사태 피해 감소에 초점을 맞춘 연구에 기초 자료로서 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드
산사태 피해면적
변수 중요도
랜덤포레스트
빈도비율
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Information
  • Publisher :Korean Society of Engineering Geology
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지질공학회
  • Journal Title :The Journal of Engineering Geology
  • Journal Title(Ko) :지질공학
  • Volume : 34
  • No :1
  • Pages :51-65
  • Received Date : 2024-01-03
  • Revised Date : 2024-03-07
  • Accepted Date : 2024-03-11
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.9720/kseg.2024.1.051
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